Tuesday, February 28, 2017
Ed Lazear Sobre o Crescimento Econômico no Governo Trump
Edward Lazear é um dos poucos leading economists que não está contaminado pela atmosfera venenosa e destrutiva criada pelo PT americano, o partido democrata e seu braço esquerdo a grande imprensa, para sabotar e, ultimamente, impedir Trump de governar: Generally, White House forecasts are prepared by highly capable career professionals at the Council of Economic Advisers, the agency I led from 2006-09. How is it possible for serious forecasters to convert 2% growth into the administration’s rosier picture of better than 3%? The answer is threefold: Productivity growth must return to its long-term average or better; slowing labor growth caused by an aging population must be offset; and tax cuts that favor investment must have the predicted positive effects.(...)Technology, on the other hand, responds more quickly to investment and improves when more resources are put into research. That gives the Trump administration an opening, since it can change investment incentives by overhauling the tax structure. As I have argued before on these pages, the best way to stimulate growth is to move toward a consumption tax, starting with full expensing—allowing companies to deduct investment expenditures from their taxes.(...)But there are still policies that can encourage work. The proportion of working-age Americans who are employed, has fallen during this recession and recovery to 59.9% from 63.4%. Most alarming is the decline of two percentage points among Americans between 25 and 54. At least some of this is driven by government policies that subsidize leisure over work. One is the Affordable Care Act. The CBO estimated that ObamaCare “will reduce the total number of hours worked [annually], on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor.”(...) Beyond that, the Trump administration believes that it can increase labor demand by eliminating burdensome regulations on business. The White House is already moving in this direction. Increasing immigration could enhance labor hours, but that seems counter to administration policy.