Monday, December 29, 2008
Friday, December 26, 2008
Friday, December 19, 2008
Wednesday, December 17, 2008
Monday, December 15, 2008
Tuesday, December 9, 2008
Tuesday, December 2, 2008
Monday, December 1, 2008
Sunday, November 30, 2008
Thursday, November 27, 2008
Wednesday, November 26, 2008
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Please note: If you’re overweight, I won’t date you. If you believe in God, I won’t date you. If you vote for Democrats, I won’t date you.
Monday, November 24, 2008
I’d never taken an accounting course, never run a business, never even had savings of my own to manage. I stumbled into a job at Salomon Brothers in 1985 and stumbled out much richer three years later, and even though I wrote a book about the experience, the whole thing still strikes me as preposterous—which is one of the reasons the money was so easy to walk away from. I figured the situation was unsustainable. Sooner rather than later, someone was going to identify me, along with a lot of people more or less like me, as a fraud. Sooner rather than later, there would come a Great Reckoning when Wall Street would wake up and hundreds if not thousands of young people like me, who had no business making huge bets with other people’s money, would be expelled from finance.
When I sat down to write my account of the experience in 1989—Liar’s Poker, it was called—it was in the spirit of a young man who thought he was getting out while the getting was good. I was merely scribbling down a message on my way out and stuffing it into a bottle for those who would pass through these parts in the far distant future".
Por que o ensino básico no Brasil é tão ruim? Por causa do monopólio dos pedagogos. Todos os professores do ensino básico precisam tomar lições de ideologia e boçalidade nas escolinhas de educação. Nemerson Lavoura joga uma pá de cal nesse jabá todo.
Sunday, November 23, 2008
Saturday, November 22, 2008
Friday, November 21, 2008
Thursday, November 20, 2008
Wednesday, November 19, 2008
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Interestingly, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac both enjoyed this kind of unspoken guarantee. For decades the market understood that, since these private players were enmeshed with the government, Uncle Sam would always save the day. It was the worst of all worlds. Not only were profits privatized while risks were socialized but the implicit government backing created powerful incentives for reckless investments.
Now, with the new equity purchase program, Paulson has taken the discredited Fannie and Freddie model and applied it to a huge swath of the private banking industry. And once again, there is no reason to shy away from risky bets--especially since Treasury has not required the banks to give up high-risk financial instruments in exchange for taxpayer dollars.
To further boost confidence, the federal government has also unveiled unlimited public guarantees for many bank deposit accounts. Oh, and as if this wasn't enough, Treasury has been encouraging the banks to merge with one another, ensuring that the only institutions left standing will be "too big to fail." In three different ways, the market is being told loud and clear that Washington will not allow the country's financial institutions to bear the consequences of their behavior. This may well be Bush's most creative innovation: no-risk capitalism.
Monday, November 17, 2008
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Saturday, November 15, 2008
Friday, November 14, 2008
Wednesday, November 12, 2008
Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Monday, November 10, 2008
"Back in the '70s, conservative intellectuals loved to talk about "radical chic," the well-known tendency of educated, often wealthy liberals to project their political fantasies onto brutal revolutionaries and street thugs, and romanticize their "struggles." But "populist chic" is just the inversion of "radical chic," and is no less absurd, comical or ominous. Traditional conservatives were always suspicious of populism, and they were right to be. They saw elites as a fact of political life, even of democratic life. What matters in democracy is that those elites acquire their positions through talent and experience, and that they be educated to serve the public good. But it also matters that they own up to their elite status and defend the need for elites. They must be friends of democracy while protecting it, and themselves, from the leveling and vulgarization all democracy tends toward.
Writing recently in the New York Times, David Brooks noted correctly (if belatedly) that conservatives' "disdain for liberal intellectuals" had slipped into "disdain for the educated class as a whole," and worried that the Republican Party was alienating educated voters. I couldn't care less about the future of the Republican Party, but I do care about the quality of political thinking and judgment in the country as a whole. There was a time when conservative intellectuals raised the level of American public debate and helped to keep it sober. Those days are gone. As for political judgment, the promotion of Sarah Palin as a possible world leader speaks for itself. The Republican Party and the political right will survive, but the conservative intellectual tradition is already dead. And all of us, even liberals like myself, are poorer for it".
Sunday, November 9, 2008
Saturday, November 8, 2008
Friday, November 7, 2008
- Contra bandidos, o Estado e seus agentes atuam como se bandidos fossem, à margem da lei. Juízes que arrogam a si a responsabilidade por operações policiais transformam a Constituição em um punhado de palavras bonitas rabiscadas num pedaço de papel sem utilidade prática - afirmou.
Thursday, November 6, 2008
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Tuesday, November 4, 2008
Monday, November 3, 2008
Ms Dunwoodie was sitting two or three seats to the left of Mr de Menezes when he boarded the train at Stockwell Tube Station, south London on 22 July 2005.
She told the inquest that, at the time, she thought the firearms officers pursuing Mr de Menezes were members of a gang. He was shot seven times in the head at point-blank range after being mistaken for failed bomber Hussain Osman.
Ms Dunwoodie, who was travelling from Tooting Bec into central London, said she did not hear officers shout any warning at the electrician.
"I would like to say that on whether I heard anything from police officers, I am very, very clear. I had absolutely no idea who they were and had they shouted I would have latched on to that," she said.
"The final economic values ("final" as of October 30, 2008) are 0.22 for GROWTH, 2.88 for INFLATION, and 3 for GOODNEWS. Given these values, the predicted Republican vote share (of the two-party vote) is 48.09 percent. So the prediction is 51.91 for the Democrats and 48.09 for the Republicans, for a spread of 3.82.
The current situation is unusual in that the economy since the end of the third quarter appears to have gotten much worse. People may perceive the economy to be worse than the economic values through the third quarter indicate, which, other things being equal, suggests that the vote equation may overpredict the Republican share. But for what it is worth, the final vote prediction is 48.09 percent of the two-party vote for the Republicans. The Republican share of the two-party House vote is predicted to be 44.24 percent".
O SB parece analista de finanças e faz uma previsãp sem base nenhuma, no chute puro e simples prevê: McCain ganha amanhã, raça ainda é um issue fundamental na política Americana.
Saturday, November 1, 2008
"O ministro Paulo Gallotti, do Superior Tribunal de Justiça (STJ), ratificou todas as decisões e medidas cautelares proferidas pelo Tribunal Regional Federal da 1ª Região presentes no inquérito referente à Operação Pasárgada, da Polícia Federal (PF), realizada em abril deste ano. O ministro ratificou, inclusive, as autorizações judiciais levadas a efeito pelo Corregedor-Geral do TRF.
Além disso, o ministro Gallotti autorizou o prosseguimento das investigações pela PF, ressalvada a ouvida de pessoas com foro de prerrogativa de função e a adoção de medidas que exijam prévia autorização judicial. A Operação Pasárgada apontou indícios de crimes cometidos, em tese, por prefeitos municipais, advogados, servidores públicos, magistrados e outras pessoas, visando à liberação fraudulenta de parcelas do Fundo de Participação dos Municípios (FPM)".
Friday, October 31, 2008
Thursday, October 30, 2008
Esta ação de um procurador do Ministério Público federal é tão profundamente ridícula, tão inocentemente malefica, tão patentemente patética, que sua absurda existência apenas ilustra a total inutilidade e auto-achincalhamento das instituições responsáveis pela justiça na selva. Também substancia o baixíssimo nível intelectual das pessoas que ocupam esses cargos públicos.
Wednesday, October 29, 2008
Tuesday, October 28, 2008
Monday, October 27, 2008
Saturday, October 25, 2008
Friday, October 24, 2008
"Western Europe’s contemporary culture is one of repudiation, a culture based on negatives for every aspect of the traditional European heritage, such as Christianity, monogamous marriage, national loyalty, monocultural identity and so on. Western Europe’s refusal to uphold the old forms of moral and civil order make it impossible to curb the welfare state, to control immigration, to maintain order in its cities, to resist Islamization".
Thursday, October 23, 2008
Wednesday, October 22, 2008
Tuesday, October 21, 2008
A polícia federal e o Ministério Público federal afirmam que as investigações dos desdobramentos da Operação Pasárgada estão travadas desde que o STJ (Superior Tribunal de Justiça) assumiu o comando do inquérito -que envolve pelo menos um desembargador federal suspeito de negociar sentença.
Monday, October 20, 2008
Saturday, October 18, 2008
Friday, October 17, 2008
5) Algumas empresas brasileiras fizeram operações financeiras estranhas. Tais operações resultaram em grandes prejuízos. Em sua opinião isso foi má sorte ou barbeiragem pura dos administradores?
"Barbeiragem. Não entenderam a operação, não souberam apreçar o instrumento, não tinham noção clara dos payoffs negativos".
Thursday, October 16, 2008
El loco Bielsa jogou uma pá de cal nos hermanos. Sua única razão de existir é fazer com o futebol argentino o que o Bush faz com os EUA. Dunga é seu discípulo dileto, ainda em fase de aprimoramento. Seu objetivo é exterminar completamente o futebol brasileiro. Hoje ele provou que não precisa usar suas armas principais para isso, decidiu que o gigantesco anão Diego e o rei da cocada marron, Ronaldin Gaúcho, não jogariam. Todavia,Dunga é criativo e conseguiu uma proeza, ele DESTRUIU a jogada mais básica e elementar do futebol canarinho: O apoio dos laterais ao ataque. Para isso lançou mão de uma aberração absoluta e inigualavel na lateral esquerda [alguém faz a mínima idéia do que seja aquilo?]. Além disso, num jogo em que o adversário jogou com onze zagueiros, sem a mínima vontade de passar do meio de campo, o Dunga decidiu escalar dois cabeças de bagre para ajudar na defesa. Impressionante, admirável. Será que a CBF só vai deixar de escalar aquele bug ensandecido, o tal do Josué, na hora em que algum clube otário da Europa comprar o seu passe?
Wednesday, October 15, 2008
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
O então Ministro do Planejamento José Serra me telefonou perguntando se estava acompanhando as pesquisas de Krugman em Harvard. Elas já chamavam a atenção do mundo acadêmico. Disse-lhe que não tinha a menor idéia sobre elas. Então, como tinha escrito aquele artigo?"
Como Erik Figueiredo notou, o midget mental acha que vai ganhar o Nobel. Detalhe, apreciem o profundo conhecimento de economia de Serra ao ligar Krugman a Harvard.
"Why were the warnings ignored rather than investigated? First, preconceptions played a role. Many economists and political leaders are heavily invested in a free market ideology which teaches that markets are robust and self-regulating. The experience with deregulation, privatization, and the many economic success stories that followed the collapse of communism supported belief in the free market. The belief was reinforced, in the case of the financial system, by advances in financial economics, and relatedly by the development of new financial instruments that were believed to have increased the resilience of the financial system to shocks. Borrowing and then lending the borrowed funds is inherently risky, because you have fixed liabilities but (unless you invest in risk-free assets such as short-term Treasury Bills) risky assets. But it was believed that the risks of borrowing had been reduced and therefore that leverage (the ratio of borrowing to capital) could be increased without increasing risk. Bayesian decision theory teaches that when evidence bearing on a decision is weak, prior beliefs will influence the decision maker's ultimate decision".
E, mais importante, sobre os PICARETAS de finanças ele diz:
"Of all the puzzles about the failure to foresee the financial crisis, the biggest is the failure of foresight of professors of finance and of macroeconomics, with a few exceptions such as Roubini. Some of the media commentary has attributed this to economics professors' being overly reliant on abstract mathematical models of the economy. In fact professors of finance, who are found mainly in business schools rather than in economics departments, tend to be deeply involved in the real world of financial markets. They are not armchair theoreticians. They are involved in the financial markets as consultants, investors, and sometimes money managers. Their students typically have worked in business for several years before starting business school, and they therefore bring with them to the business school up-to-date knowledge of business practices. So why weren’t there more Roubinis? I do not know. And why, if not more Roubinis, not more financial economists who took the warning signs sufficiently seriously to investigate the soundness of the financial system? I do not know that either". [Hat tip, Badger]
Monday, October 13, 2008
Sunday, October 12, 2008
Saturday, October 11, 2008
Friday, October 10, 2008
Thursday, October 9, 2008
Continuem apostando. A galera que acha que as merdas tradicionais Brasil, Rússia, México e Argentina são imbatíveis, tem que prestar muita atenção naquela bosta de gelo que bóia sozinha no Atlântico norte.
Wednesday, October 8, 2008
“Nos últimos quinze anos, fiz várias dezenas de palestras sobre a economia brasileira em Wall Street”. Concluimos que se Wall Street paga para sociólogo falar de economia essa crise financeira era mesmo inevitável.
Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Num artigo na Forbes, o ganhador do Nobel de economia de 2001, Michael Spence, explica a crise financeira:
"One should ask why a housing bubble caused by low interest rates and the inappropriate and excessive extension of credit has caused such a widespread financial crisis. The short answer is balance sheets. Through securitization, the packaging and repackaging of mortgages (and securities backed by mortgages), the holding of the highly levered and now damaged securities was widespread--including in all the principal financial institutions that supply credit to the economy. Insurance also played a role. Securities that looked risky were nevertheless rated highly and purchased in part because of the addition of credit insurance. But insurance only works when individual risks are substantially uncorrelated in the pool that is being insured. No one would undertake to provide hurricane insurance for a single town on the Gulf Coast. The problem is that when risk is as systematic as it has become in the financial sector, you can't provide insurance without an enormous capital underpinning. That was not there".
E tenta explicar como o bailout vai atuar:
"One goal is clearly to help households whose mortgages are either under the current value of the house or who cannot pay the interest and principal on the mortgage. This is important politically, and can be accomplished through the purchase of bundles of mortgages, resetting the terms of the mortgages and avoiding foreclosure. A second is to initiate a process in which something like market values are established for assets whose value is currently highly uncertain, or discounted dramatically, because of counterparty solvency, visibility and transparency issues. The third is to inject capital into the existing system, by replacing highly discounted or under-priced assets with cash. There is a debate going on about what the "right" price is for these purchases. The argument is something like this: If the purchases are at current extreme distressed prices, not much capital will enter the system; and if they are at higher prices, the institutions are being bailed out and the taxpayer is footing the bill, or there is compensating warrant dilution".
Sábias palavras de Arnold Kling:
"Big Finance and Big Government have much in common. Both are coveted by Harvard graduates. Both are characterized by an arrogant sense of entitlement and importance.
Instead of thinking of the pending bailouts and financial regulation as a new era of government supervisions of markets, think of it as preserving the system in which a Harvard elite controls other people's money. In fact, very little is likely to change. Reading the news stories about how Secretary Paulson plans to implement the bailout, it seems as though the same people will be in charge of the money. Print some new business cards, change the logo on the front from "Goldman Sachs" to "U.S. Treasury," and everything else continues as it was. It's just that it becomes a lot more difficult for ordinary people to opt out of using the elite's money management services"
Monday, October 6, 2008
O SB aposta no México. Campeón mundial de crises. Muito difícil bater los hermanos Aztecas. Se bem que a farra na selva tava boa demais e desperdiçamos oportunidades únicas que apareceram nesta década para investir em infraestrutura, educação, equilíbrio fiscal e apenas nos tornamos imbatíveis em corrupção e canalhice política.
Sunday, October 5, 2008
Saturday, October 4, 2008
Friday, October 3, 2008
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Wednesday, October 1, 2008
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Brilhante e corajosa iniciativa Andrei. Quantos professores teriam a coragem de colocar seus cursos online e aceitar críticas? Poucos.
O SB gostaria de sugerir um adendo ao programa do curso. Seria interessante remeter os alunos na aula sobre Foucault `a crítica de José Guilherme Merquior em seu livro, Foucault (1987) [uma resenha aqui]. Merquior, um grande pensador brasileiro, é, como esperado, solenemente ignorado na selva.
O SB tem novidades para você:
Papel nao cria riqueza. Vender papel colorido, nao cria riqueza. Papel precisa ter fundamento na economia real para ter valor.
Isso posto, segue a definição de finanças:
Financas e' a ciência de quem embrulha merda pura e cristalina em papel dourado e espera vender a merda bem cara porque o papel brilha.
Monday, September 29, 2008
Os chamados profissionais liberais com empresa própria, também denominados sociedades civis de prestação de serviços, devem, obrigatoriamente, pagar a Cofins (Contribuição para o Financiamento da Seguridade Social), conforme decidiu na última quarta-feira (17) o STF (Supremo Tribunal Federal). Na prática, a cobrança já existia, mas muitos contribuintes a consideravam ilegítima.
O STF tomou a decisão ao julgar constitucional uma lei de 1996, que acabava com a isenção das sociedades civis de prestação de serviços. Os ministros entenderam que a medida é retroativa, de forma que as empresas devem pagar os impostos devidos referentes aos últimos 12 anos.
Vale a pena ler o que Adolfo Sachsida escreve sobre mais essa estupidez.
To the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the President pro tempore of the Senate: As economists, we want to express to Congress our great concern for the plan proposed by Treasury Secretary Paulson to deal with the financial crisis. We are well aware of the difficulty of the current financial situation and we agree with the need for bold action to ensure that the financial system continues to function. We see three fatal pitfalls in the currently proposed plan:
1) Its fairness. The plan is a subsidy to investors at taxpayers’ expense. Investors who took risks to earn profits must also bear the losses. Not every business failure carries systemic risk. The government can ensure a well-functioning financial industry, able to make new loans to creditworthy borrowers, without bailing out particular investors and institutions whose choices proved unwise.
2) Its ambiguity. Neither the mission of the new agency nor its oversight are clear. If taxpayers are to buy illiquid and opaque assets from troubled sellers, the terms, occasions, and methods of such purchases must be crystal clear ahead of time and carefully monitored afterwards.
3) Its long-term effects. If the plan is enacted, its effects will be with us for a generation. For all their recent troubles, America's dynamic and innovative private capital markets have brought the nation unparalleled prosperity. Fundamentally weakening those markets in order to calm short-run disruptions is desperately short-sighted. For these reasons we ask Congress not to rush, to hold appropriate hearings, and to carefully consider the right course of action, and to wisely determine the future of the financial industry and the U.S. economy for years to come.
Signed (updated at 9/25/2008 8:30AM CT)
Acemoglu Daron (Massachussets Institute of Technology)Adler Michael (Columbia University)Admati Anat R. (Stanford University)Alexis Marcus (Northwestern University)Alvarez Fernando (University of Chicago)Andersen Torben (Northwestern University)Baliga Sandeep (Northwestern University)Banerjee Abhijit V. (Massachussets Institute of Technology)Barankay Iwan (University of Pennsylvania)Barry Brian (University of Chicago)Bartkus James R. (Xavier University of Louisiana) Becker Charles M. (Duke University)Becker Robert A. (Indiana University)Beim David (Columbia University)Berk Jonathan (Stanford University)Bisin Alberto (New York University)Bittlingmayer George (University of Kansas)Boldrin Michele (Washington University)Brooks Taggert J. (University of Wisconsin)Brynjolfsson Erik (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)Buera Francisco J. (UCLA)Camp Mary Elizabeth (Indiana University)Carmel Jonathan (University of Michigan)Carroll Christopher (Johns Hopkins University)Cassar Gavin (University of Pennsylvania)Chaney Thomas (University of Chicago)Chari Varadarajan V. (University of Minnesota)Chauvin Keith W. (University of Kansas)Chintagunta Pradeep K. (University of Chicago)Christiano Lawrence J. (Northwestern University)Cochrane John (University of Chicago)Coleman John (Duke University)Constantinides George M. (University of Chicago)Crain Robert (UC Berkeley)Culp Christopher (University of Chicago)Da Zhi (University of Notre Dame)Davis Morris (University of Wisconsin)De Marzo Peter (Stanford University)Dubé Jean-Pierre H. (University of Chicago)Edlin Aaron (UC Berkeley)Eichenbaum Martin (Northwestern University)Ely Jeffrey (Northwestern University)Eraslan Hülya K. K.(Johns Hopkins University)Faulhaber Gerald (University of Pennsylvania)Feldmann Sven (University of Melbourne)Fernandez-Villaverde Jesus (University of Pennsylvania)Fohlin Caroline (Johns Hopkins University)Fox Jeremy T. (University of Chicago)Frank Murray Z.(University of Minnesota)Frenzen Jonathan (University of Chicago)Fuchs William (University of Chicago)Fudenberg Drew (Harvard University)Gabaix Xavier (New York University)Gao Paul (Notre Dame University)Garicano Luis (University of Chicago)Gerakos Joseph J. (University of Chicago)Gibbs Michael (University of Chicago)Glomm Gerhard (Indiana University)Goettler Ron (University of Chicago)Goldin Claudia (Harvard University)Gordon Robert J. (Northwestern University)Greenstone Michael (Massachusetts Institute of Technology)Guadalupe Maria (Columbia University)Guerrieri Veronica (University of Chicago)Hagerty Kathleen (Northwestern University)Hamada Robert S. (University of Chicago)Hansen Lars (University of Chicago)Harris Milton (University of Chicago)Hart Oliver (Harvard University)Hazlett Thomas W. (George Mason University)Heaton John (University of Chicago)Heckman James (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)Henderson David R. (Hoover Institution)Henisz, Witold (University of Pennsylvania)Hertzberg Andrew (Columbia University)Hite Gailen (Columbia University)Hitsch Günter J. (University of Chicago)Hodrick Robert J. (Columbia University)Hopenhayn Hugo (UCLA)Hurst Erik (University of Chicago)Imrohoroglu Ayse (University of Southern California)Isakson Hans (University of Northern Iowa)Israel Ronen (London Business School)Jaffee Dwight M. (UC Berkeley)Jagannathan Ravi (Northwestern University)Jenter Dirk (Stanford University)Jones Charles M. (Columbia Business School)Kaboski Joseph P. (Ohio State University)Kahn Matthew (UCLA)Kaplan Ethan (Stockholm University)Karolyi, Andrew (Ohio State University)Kashyap Anil (University of Chicago)Keim Donald B (University of Pennsylvania)Ketkar Suhas L (Vanderbilt University)Kiesling Lynne (Northwestern University)Klenow Pete (Stanford University)Koch Paul (University of Kansas)Kocherlakota Narayana (University of Minnesota)Koijen Ralph S.J. (University of Chicago)Kondo Jiro (Northwestern University)Korteweg Arthur (Stanford University)Kortum Samuel (University of Chicago)Krueger Dirk (University of Pennsylvania)Ledesma Patricia (Northwestern University)Lee Lung-fei (Ohio State University)Leeper Eric M. (Indiana University)Leuz Christian (University of Chicago)Levine David I.(UC Berkeley)Levine David K.(Washington University)Levy David M. (George Mason University)Linnainmaa Juhani (University of Chicago)Lott John R. Jr. (University of Maryland)Lucas Robert (University of Chicago - Nobel Laureate)Luttmer Erzo G.J. (University of Minnesota)Manski Charles F. (Northwestern University)Martin Ian (Stanford University)Mayer Christopher (Columbia University)Mazzeo Michael (Northwestern University)McDonald Robert (Northwestern University)Meadow Scott F. (University of Chicago)Mehra Rajnish (UC Santa Barbara)Mian Atif (University of Chicago)Middlebrook Art (University of Chicago)Miguel Edward (UC Berkeley)Miravete Eugenio J. (University of Texas at Austin)Miron Jeffrey (Harvard University)Moretti Enrico (UC Berkeley)Moriguchi Chiaki (Northwestern University)Moro Andrea (Vanderbilt University)Morse Adair (University of Chicago)Mortensen Dale T. (Northwestern University)Mortimer Julie Holland (Harvard University)Muralidharan Karthik (UC San Diego)Nanda Dhananjay (University of Miami)Nevo Aviv (Northwestern University)Ohanian Lee (UCLA) Pagliari Joseph (University of Chicago)Papanikolaou Dimitris (Northwestern University)Parker Jonathan (Northwestern University)Paul Evans (Ohio State University)Pejovich Svetozar (Steve) (Texas A&M University)Peltzman Sam (University of Chicago)Perri Fabrizio (University of Minnesota)Phelan Christopher (University of Minnesota)Piazzesi Monika (Stanford University)Piskorski Tomasz (Columbia University)Rampini Adriano (Duke University)Reagan Patricia (Ohio State University)Reich Michael (UC Berkeley)Reuben Ernesto (Northwestern University)Roberts Michael (University of Pennsylvania)Robinson David (Duke University)Rogers Michele (Northwestern University)Rotella Elyce (Indiana University) Ruud Paul (Vassar College)Safford Sean (University of Chicago)Sandbu Martin E. (University of Pennsylvania)Sapienza Paola (Northwestern University) Savor Pavel (University of Pennsylvania)Scharfstein David (Harvard University)Seim Katja (University of Pennsylvania)Seru Amit (University of Chicago)Shang-Jin Wei (Columbia University)Shimer Robert (University of Chicago)Shore Stephen H. (Johns Hopkins University)Siegel Ron (Northwestern University)Smith David C. (University of Virginia)Smith Vernon L.(Chapman University- Nobel Laureate)Sorensen Morten (Columbia University)Spiegel Matthew (Yale University)Stevenson Betsey (University of Pennsylvania)Stokey Nancy (University of Chicago)Strahan Philip (Boston College)Strebulaev Ilya (Stanford University)Sufi Amir (University of Chicago)Tabarrok Alex (George Mason University)Taylor Alan M. (UC Davis)Thompson Tim (Northwestern University)Tschoegl Adrian E. (University of Pennsylvania)Uhlig Harald (University of Chicago)Ulrich, Maxim (Columbia University)Van Buskirk Andrew (University of Chicago)Veronesi Pietro (University of Chicago)Vissing-Jorgensen Annette (Northwestern University)Wacziarg Romain (UCLA)Weill Pierre-Olivier (UCLA)Williamson Samuel H. (Miami University)Witte Mark (Northwestern University)Wolfers Justin (University of Pennsylvania)Woutersen Tiemen (Johns Hopkins University)Zingales Luigi (University of Chicago)Zitzewitz Eric (Dartmouth College)
Sunday, September 28, 2008
Saturday, September 27, 2008
Friday, September 26, 2008
Thursday, September 25, 2008
Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Como é possível transformar uma confissão de culpa na proclamação de um erro judiciário, na denúncia de uma condenação iniquamente imposta a pessoa inocente? É o milagre jornalístico dos títulos. Com quatro ou cinco palavras você inverte o sentido de uma matéria inteira. Como a maior parte dos leitores só lê os títulos, o impacto da notícia real é neutralizado e é o contrário dela que permanece na memória geral. Repitam esse processo uns milhares de vezes e as mais estúpidas histórias da carochinha se tornam verdades de evangelho. Isso é o que no Brasil de hoje se chama “jornalismo”".
Tuesday, September 23, 2008
Monday, September 22, 2008
Sunday, September 21, 2008
Friday, September 19, 2008
'This isn't a dissertation in economics,' Milton Friedman disse para Markowitz. 'It's not math, it's not economics, it's not even business administration.' Estória contada no livro de Peter Bernstein, Capital Ideas Evolving.
Thursday, September 18, 2008
Sim, idéias, não interesses ocultos, são mais perigosas. Como sempre, quando se fala em idéias sobre a sociedade, sempre há economistas desenvolvendo algumas das piores delas. É a pretensão do conhecimento. Por um lado [o esquerdo] há aqueles que pretendem reorganizar a sociedade. Acham que seu conhecimento é infalível, exato, e pensam que fazem engenharia, engenharia social. Ignoram os indivíduos e sua liberdade e querem impor um modelo social que julgam perfeito. O resultado catastrófico é bem conhecido: Stalin, Mao e Pol-Pot. Do outro lado [digamos, o direito], há aqueles economistas que não se importam com a sociedade como um todo. Sua pretensão aparentemente é menor. Eles só desejam bater o mercado. Eles se acham mais inteligentes, mais espertos que o mercado, por isso acham que podem batê-lo sistematicamente com o intuito de enriquecer. Esses são os economistas que se dedicam a finanças. Sua pretensão ao conhecimento e arrogância intelectual, todavia, não é menor do que a dos engenheiros sociais. O mercado é constituído por milhões de pessoas, mas como eles se acham intelectualmente superiores, eles acreditam que suas decisões são melhores e mais poderosas a ponto de manipular sistematicamente essas milhões de pessoas em benefício próprio. Os profissionais de finanças, simples parasitas intelectuais dessa concepção de mundo, acreditam piamente nessa crença.
Fazem dez anos que uma das maiores picaretagens intelectuais da história da humanidade foi pro brejo: A bancarrota do LTCM – Long-Term Capitol Management. A sua história ilustra toda a crítica que desenvolvemos. Esse fundo era administrado por dois prêmios nobel em economia, Robert Merton e Myron Scholes, que haviam sido premiados um ano antes, em 1997, por terem desenvolvido algumas das idéias e modelos mais influentes em finanças, tais como o Black-Scholes. Além desses líderes intelectuais, o fundo tinha entre seus diretores, um experiente profissional do mercado, John Meriwether e, como sempre acontece nos mercados financeiros, um insider, David Mullins, um ex vice-chairman da diretoria do Federal Reserve. O fundo, portanto, tinha tudo para dar certo: Vasto poder intelectual, gênios cujo conhecimento era suficiente para bater o mercado; experiência no mercado e, proteção pública e inside information. Para surpresa do próprio mercado, o fundo implodiu com a crise Russa.