Sete Características da Transição do Comunismo para a “Economia de Mercado” Segundo Andrei Shleifer

First, in all countries in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union, economic activity shrunk at the beginning of transition, in some very sharply. These declines contradicted at least the simple economic theory that a move to free prices should immediately improve resource allocation. The main lesson of this experience is for reformers not to count on an immediate return to growth. Economic transformation takes time. Second, the decline was not permanent. As predicted, capitalism worked and living standards improved enormously. So lesson learned: have faith – capitalism really does work. Third, the declines in output nowhere led to populist revolts. Fourth, economists and reformers overstated both their ability to sequence reforms, and the importance of particular tactical choices, eg, in privatisation. Fifth, economists have greatly exaggerated the benefits of incentives by themselves, without changes in people. Transition to markets is accomplished by new people, not by old people with better incentives. Sixth, it is important not to overestimate the long-run consequences of macroeconomic crises and even debt defaults. This experience bears a profound lesson for reformers, who are always intimidated by the international financial community: do not panic about crises; they blow over fast. Seventh, it is much easier to forecast economic than political evolution. Although nearly all transition countries have eventually converged to some form of capitalism, there has been a broader range of political experiences, from full democracies, to primitive dictatorships, to just about everything in between.