Thursday, May 26, 2011

A Volta da Inflação e o Efeito Bicicreta na Ingraterra

Mervyn King é um fenômeno, quando era acadêmico publicava papers na Econometrica que seriam rejeitados em qualquer journal. Criou fama de bom economista, ninguém sabe ao certo porquê. No Banco da Inglaterra gasta mais com o jardim do seu office do que com os newly minted Ph.D. que emprega. Os pobres coitados não têm dinheiro nem pra tomar uma pint no fim do dia. Mas vamos ao que interessa, King é um bom banqueiro central? A resposta está nos resultados:
In the United Kingdom, it's a different picture: we are stuck in the never never land of wishful thinking as a proxy for monetary policy. In April, inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) bounced up to 4.5 per cent; the retail prices index, which includes mortgage costs, is running at 5.2 per cent.
Over the past five years, inflation has been above-target for 51 of the 60 months, averaging three per cent. What's more, it's heading in the wrong direction, with the Bank itself warning that CPI rises could soon reach five per cent.
On current form, by the time the Bank's governor Mervyn King retires in 2013, UK inflation will have been above-target for the best part of seven years. The Government's official guideline of two per cent for CPI has, de facto, been abandoned by the Bank of England and the Treasury

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