O Espaço Fiscal e a Crise Iminente

Artigo de Atish R Ghosh, Enrique G. Mendoza, e Jonathan D Ostry que conclui:
•First, there is a definite wake-up call in the finding that a country has little or no fiscal space. In these cases, fiscal policy needs to break fundamentally from the past to credibly signal to markets that debt limits will not be reached. Business as usual simply won’t cut it.
•But, second, a finding of little or no fiscal space does not imply that default is inevitable – debt limits are not etched in stone. Our estimates of fiscal space are based on the assumption that future policy reactions will mirror those in the past. Since behaviour can change, history is not destiny as long as policy changes credibly.
•Third, countries will generally want to target debt levels well below the limits. [Dica, Badger]