Spence Explica a Crise e o Bailout

Num artigo na Forbes, o ganhador do Nobel de economia de 2001, Michael Spence, explica a crise financeira:

"One should ask why a housing bubble caused by low interest rates and the inappropriate and excessive extension of credit has caused such a widespread financial crisis. The short answer is balance sheets. Through securitization, the packaging and repackaging of mortgages (and securities backed by mortgages), the holding of the highly levered and now damaged securities was widespread--including in all the principal financial institutions that supply credit to the economy. Insurance also played a role. Securities that looked risky were nevertheless rated highly and purchased in part because of the addition of credit insurance. But insurance only works when individual risks are substantially uncorrelated in the pool that is being insured. No one would undertake to provide hurricane insurance for a single town on the Gulf Coast. The problem is that when risk is as systematic as it has become in the financial sector, you can't provide insurance without an enormous capital underpinning. That was not there".

E tenta explicar como o bailout vai atuar:

"One goal is clearly to help households whose mortgages are either under the current value of the house or who cannot pay the interest and principal on the mortgage. This is important politically, and can be accomplished through the purchase of bundles of mortgages, resetting the terms of the mortgages and avoiding foreclosure. A second is to initiate a process in which something like market values are established for assets whose value is currently highly uncertain, or discounted dramatically, because of counterparty solvency, visibility and transparency issues. The third is to inject capital into the existing system, by replacing highly discounted or under-priced assets with cash. There is a debate going on about what the "right" price is for these purchases. The argument is something like this: If the purchases are at current extreme distressed prices, not much capital will enter the system; and if they are at higher prices, the institutions are being bailed out and the taxpayer is footing the bill, or there is compensating warrant dilution".